[1] According to ITC, “the Export Potential Map model predicts the expected value of trade between two countries taking into account supply performance, demand for the selected product, and the relative strength of the trade relationship between the exporting and importing country. It generates a benchmark value of what can be reasonably expected given the characteristics of the trading countries and specific product based on historical trade and market access information projected into the future. While the model provides important guidance on export potential, it does not represent an upper boundary for export performance.

Exporters can exceed the expected values through exceptional performance in some markets such as creating high quality products with strong brand recognition that align well with consumer preferences. Exceeding the export potential in some markets can have two possible meanings: (1) other markets that also import the product and with whom trade is in principle possible have been so far neglected and (2) other suppliers exist with unused export potential in these markets; should they manage to overcome current frictions, competition could become fiercer. Thus, the export potential value is an indicative benchmark of an “optimal” allocation of trade flows, but not an absolute limit on possible export values.” Export Potential Map (intracen.org)